Mallorca vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 0-1 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mallorca, 27% draw, 28% Almeria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs Almeria
Line-ups
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 15John NwankwoD
- 21RaílloD
- 22A. SouhmahoroD
- 8Manu MorlanesM
- 23Antoniu RocaM
- 20Pablo TorreM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 33Adrian LisoM
- 18FuentesF
- 2Guille FernándezM
- 16A. BuksaF
- 3Toni LatoD
- 4David LópezD
- 5Alberto MorenoD
- 9Abdón PratsF
- 17Arnau PuigmalM
- 6Antonio SánchezM
- 37Toni DolsG
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 23Adri EmbarbaM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 32A. PopovD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 9ThalysF
Form going into Mallorca vs Almeria
Mallorca
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II19 September 2026
- W2-0Sabadell13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mallorca had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almeria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Almeria
- 19 May 2024Mallorca 2–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 17 December 2023Almeria 0–0 MallorcaLa Liga
- 20 May 2023Almeria 3–0 MallorcaLa Liga
- 17 September 2022Mallorca 1–0 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 21 February 2021Mallorca 2–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Almeria
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes61
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria won 1–0 at Mallorca. The model had leaned towards a win for Mallorca at 45% and given a win for Almeria 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Miguel De La Fuente 35' for Almeria.
How the call on Mallorca v Almeria has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Mallorca's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Mallorca win45%▼ −5
- Draw27%=
- Almeria win28%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.