27 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas
Referee: Menelaos Antoniou
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lithuania, 30% draw, 44% Azerbaijan — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Azerbaijan at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lithuania3%Draw93%Azerbaijan4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Kučys (pen)
9'
14'
⚽Mahir Emreliassist: Tellur Mutallimov
27'
Rahil Mammadov
39'
Tellur Mutallimov
45'
🔁Emil Safarovout: Rufat Abdullazada
Gvidas Gineitis
52'
56'
Aleksey Isaev
🔁Vykintas Slivkaout: Domantas Šluta
57'
60'
🔁Rufat Abbasovout: Tural Bayramov
60'
🔁Renat Dadaşovout: Musa Qurbanly
🔁Lukas Michelbrinkout: Modestas Vorobjovas
66'
🔁Adrian Lickūnasout: Motiejus Burba
66'
🔁Artur Dolžnikovout: Eligijus Jankauskas
77'
🔁A. Kučysout: Ignas Venckus
77'
87'
🔁Tellur Mutallimovout: Vüsal İsgändärli
90+2'
🔁Abdulakh khaybulaevout: Calal Hüseynov

Match stats — Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

51%Possession49%
9Shots9
3On target4
0Corners2

Line-ups

Lithuania 3-4-3
  • 23D. BartkusG
  • 18V. ArmalasD
  • 3E. UtkusD
  • 2A. TutyškinasD
  • 21A. LickūnasM
  • 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 15G. GineitisM
  • 13J. LasickasM
  • 14V. SlivkaF
  • 10A. KučysF
  • 7A. DolžnikovF
Substitutes
  • 4Ž. BaltrūnasD
  • 22M. BurbaF
  • 1E. GertmonasG
  • 11E. JankauskasF
  • 5K. KažukolovasD
  • 20R. LekiatasD
  • 9M. RuzgisF
  • 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
  • 19I. VenckusF
Coach: E. Jankauskas
Azerbaijan 5-4-1
  • 1E. BalayevG
  • 19T. MütəllimovD
  • 4R. MəmmədovD
  • 15B. HüseynovD
  • 2R. DaşdəmirovD
  • 3R. AbbasovD
  • 10M. EmreliM
  • 6A. XaybulayevM
  • 13E. SəfərovM
  • 20A. IsaevM
  • 9R. DadashovF
Substitutes
  • 22M. QurbanlıF
  • 23R. MirzəmmədovG
  • 8E. MahmudovM
  • 5A. KrivotsyukD
  • 17V. İsgəndərliF
  • 11I. HuseynovM
  • 7T. BayramovD
  • 12A. BayramovG
  • 21R. AbdullazadəM
Coach: Aykhan Abbasov

Form going into Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

Lithuania

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0away to Liechtenstein24 September 2026

Azerbaijan

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Lithuania311132+14
1Azerbaijan312021+15

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

  • 25 March 2019Azerbaijan 0–0 LithuaniaFriendlies

The result against the call

Lithuania and Azerbaijan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Azerbaijan at 44% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Kučys (penalty) 9' for Lithuania, Mahir Emreli 14' for Azerbaijan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.