Germany vs Greece UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Germany 0-1 Greece.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Germany, 29% draw, 23% Greece — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Germany at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Germany vs Greece
Line-ups
- 21A. NübelG
- 14J. VagnomanD
- 2Y. BisseckD
- 4J. TahD
- 18N. BrownD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 19K. AdeyemiM
- 15B. ContéM
- 9K. SchadeM
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
- 10J. BurkardtF
- 11N. AmiriM
- 12F. DahmenG
- 5Y. EngelhardtM
- 7C. FührichM
- 20S. GnabryF
- 3M. RosenfelderD
- 16A. StachM
- 13P. TreuD
- 12K. TzolakisG
- 2G. VagiannidisD
- 4K. MavropanosD
- 5P. RetsosD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 15T. AndroutsosM
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 10C. TzolisM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 16A. TettehF
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 17M. SaliakasD
- 3A. NtoiD
- 23C. MouzakitisM
- 18G. MichailidisD
- 7G. MasourasF
- 13C. MandasG
- 22G. KiriakopoulosD
- 6D. KourbelisM
Form going into Germany vs Greece
Germany
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026
Greece
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Germany vs Greece
- 7 June 2024Germany 2–1 GreeceFriendlies
- 22 June 2012Germany 4–2 GreeceEuro Championship
The result against the call
Greece won 1–0 at Germany. The model had leaned towards a win for Germany at 48% and given a win for Greece 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Dimitrios Kourbelis 74' for Greece.