Septemvri Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 33% Septemvri Sofia, 28% draw, 39% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.21, CSKA Sofia 1.33.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 28 February 2026Septemvri Sofia 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 11 October 2025CSKA Sofia 4–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 September 2025CSKA Sofia 3–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 March 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 5 October 2024CSKA Sofia 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 10 February 2024CSKA Sofia 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.27 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Septemvri Sofia D-L-L; CSKA Sofia D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.33 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Septemvri Sofia rate 0.47 in attack and 2.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.39 and 1.36.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.33 for CSKA Sofia. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.36 for CSKA Sofia.