Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Feyenoord
The model makes it 34% Sparta Rotterdam, 24% draw, 42% Feyenoord — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.52, Feyenoord 1.71.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord
- 18 January 2026Feyenoord 3–4 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 31 August 2025Sparta Rotterdam 0–4 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 8 February 2025Feyenoord 3–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 25 August 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 11 February 2024Feyenoord 2–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 20 August 2023Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
The two sides
Sparta Rotterdam carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.81 for Feyenoord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.71 for Feyenoord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.73 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Feyenoord rate 1.02 and 1.10.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.71 for Feyenoord. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.1 for Feyenoord.