Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
CSKA 1948
The model makes it 27% Lokomotiv Sofia, 19% draw, 54% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 3.70, 5.26 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.88, CSKA 1948 2.62.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Sofia
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
CSKA 1948
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Spartak Varna17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA 1948
- 21 March 2026CSKA 1948 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 19 October 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 14 May 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 9 February 2025CSKA 1948 1–4 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 15 April 2024CSKA 1948 2–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.66 for CSKA 1948. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D; CSKA 1948 D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 2.62 for CSKA 1948. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.76 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA 1948 rate 0.89 and 1.31.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 2.62 for CSKA 1948. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.76/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.31 for CSKA 1948.