Groningen vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Groningen 2-1 Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Groningen, 26% draw, 37% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Groningen at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Groningen vs Utrecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Etienne VaessenG
- 14Jorg SchreudersD
- 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
- 5Marco RenteD
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 8Tika de JongeM
- 18Tygo LandM
- 17David van der WerffM
- 26Thom van BergenM
- 24Pelle ClementM
- 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
- 15Elvis Van der LaanD
- 29Tyrique MerceraD
- 7Travis HernesM
- 34Ryan MetuF
- 31Rijk JanseG
- 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
- 42Jesper MosselaarD
- 12Nikolas BrandisD
- 53Jahelille HallM
- 25Michael BrouwerG
- 23Niklas VesterlundD
- 2Siebe HoremansD
- 44Mike EerdhuijzenD
- 92Arthur ZagreD
- 20Dani De WitM
- 8Joris van OvereemM
- 53Ferdinand PohlM
- 11Ángel AlarcónF
- 9David MinF
- 10Yoann CathlineF
- 34Davy van den BergM
- 14Zidane IqbalM
- 15Adrian BlakeF
- 6Guus OfferhausD
- 30Kevin ParedesM
- 33Kevin GadellaaG
- 32Per KloosterboerD
- 47Emmanuel OwenF
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Utrecht
- 14 February 2026Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Utrecht 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 13 April 2025Utrecht 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 20 October 2024Groningen 0–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 7 April 2023Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Utrecht
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Utrecht
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Groningen beat Utrecht 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Groningen at 37%. The goals: B. Willumsson 8' for Groningen, T. van Bergen 48' for Groningen, A. Blake 79' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 1.55–2.27.