9 August 2026, 12:30 UTC

Groningen vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

Euroborg, Groningen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Groningen 2-1 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Groningen, 26% draw, 37% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Groningen at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Groningen96%Draw4%Utrecht0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Willumsson
8'
🔁M. Renteout: E. van der Laan
30'
•B. Willumsson
34'
⚽T. van Bergen
48'
62'
🔁F. Pohlout: D. van den Berg
62'
🔁D. Minout: Z. Iqbal
62'
🔁Y. Cathlineout: A. Blake
70'
🔁S. Horemansout: G. Offerhaus
🔁W. Prinsout: T. Mercera
71'
79'
⚽A. Blakeassist: D. van den Berg
🔁B. Willumssonout: T. Hernes
81'
🔁P. Clementout: R. Metu
81'
84'
🔁A. Alarconout: K. Paredes
84'
D. de Wit
88'
J. van Overeem

Match stats — Groningen vs Utrecht

59%Possession41%
16Shots14
5On target7
5Corners1
1.55xG2.27

Goals against chances

Groningen2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
Utrecht1 from 2.27 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1Etienne VaessenG
  • 14Jorg SchreudersD
  • 3Thijmen BlokzijlD
  • 5Marco RenteD
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 8Tika de JongeM
  • 18Tygo LandM
  • 17David van der WerffM
  • 26Thom van BergenM
  • 24Pelle ClementM
  • 9Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonF
Substitutes
  • 15Elvis Van der LaanD
  • 29Tyrique MerceraD
  • 7Travis HernesM
  • 34Ryan MetuF
  • 31Rijk JanseG
  • 13Lovro ŠtubljarG
  • 42Jesper MosselaarD
  • 12Nikolas BrandisD
  • 53Jahelille HallM
Coach: Dick Lukkien
Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 25Michael BrouwerG
  • 23Niklas VesterlundD
  • 2Siebe HoremansD
  • 44Mike EerdhuijzenD
  • 92Arthur ZagreD
  • 20Dani De WitM
  • 8Joris van OvereemM
  • 53Ferdinand PohlM
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
  • 9David MinF
  • 10Yoann CathlineF
Substitutes
  • 34Davy van den BergM
  • 14Zidane IqbalM
  • 15Adrian BlakeF
  • 6Guus OfferhausD
  • 30Kevin ParedesM
  • 33Kevin GadellaaG
  • 32Per KloosterboerD
  • 47Emmanuel OwenF
Coach: Anthony Correia

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Groningen124352928+115
14Utrecht123362134-1312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Groningen vs Utrecht

  • 14 February 2026Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 14 September 2025Utrecht 0–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 13 April 2025Utrecht 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 20 October 2024Groningen 0–1 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 7 April 2023Groningen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie

The full Groningen vs Utrecht record →

Leading scorers: Groningen and Utrecht

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • B. Willumsson91
  • T. van Bergen83

Utrecht

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Groningen beat Utrecht 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Groningen at 37%. The goals: B. Willumsson 8' for Groningen, T. van Bergen 48' for Groningen, A. Blake 79' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 1.55–2.27.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.