Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-3 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Cherno More Varna, 24% draw, 60% Ludogorets — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Ludogorets at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 26João BandaroD
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 24David TelesM
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 20Aleksandar KolevF
- 29Berk BeyhanM
- 39Nikolay ZlatevM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 9Jorge PadillaF
- 31Damyan HristovG
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
- 23Martin BanevM
- 99Idris BounaasM
- 39Hendrik BonmannG
- 2Joel AnderssonD
- 15Edvin KurtulusD
- 3Anton NedyalkovD
- 42Simeon ShishkovD
- 18Ivajlo ChochevM
- 26Filip KaločM
- 7Alberto SalidoF
- 14Petar StanićM
- 37Bernard TekpeteyM
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 20Aguibou CamaraM
- 10Nathan FernandesF
- 22Mihail PolendakovD
- 9Kwadwo DuahF
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 1Sergio PadtG
- 24Olivier VerdonD
- 27Vinicius NogueiraD
- 40Aleksandar MarinovM
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Ludogorets
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Tel Aviv30 July 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv23 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
What these results say
- Ludogorets scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
- 9 April 2026Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 2 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 13 May 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 27 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Ludogorets
GoalsAssists
- B. Tekpetey20
- Rwan Cruz12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ludogorets won 3–2 at Cherno More Varna. The model had made a win for Ludogorets its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: G. Lazarov 30' for Cherno More Varna, Rwan Cruz 48' for Ludogorets, Rwan Cruz 51' for Ludogorets, I. Chochev 53' for Ludogorets, N. Zlatev 84' for Cherno More Varna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.