Cherno More Varna
vs
Ludogorets
The model makes it 16% Cherno More Varna, 24% draw, 60% Ludogorets — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 0.80, Ludogorets 1.77.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cherno More Varna
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Ludogorets
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 2 | Ludogorets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets
- 9 April 2026Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 2 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 13 May 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 27 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 1 September 2024Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Cherno More Varna carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.65 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cherno More Varna D-L-L; Ludogorets W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.77 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cherno More Varna rate 0.43 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.62 and 0.99.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.8 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 1.77 for Ludogorets. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/0.99 for Ludogorets.