Botev Vratsa
vs
Slavia Sofia
The model makes it 62% Botev Vratsa, 24% draw, 14% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.75, Slavia Sofia 0.69.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botev Vratsa
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Slavia Sofia
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia
- 26 April 2026Slavia Sofia 1–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 24 November 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 11 October 2025Slavia Sofia 3–3 Botev VratsaFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2025Slavia Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 25 May 2025Botev Vratsa 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 14 April 2025Slavia Sofia 4–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
The two sides
Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.18 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botev Vratsa D-L-L; Slavia Sofia D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Botev Vratsa and 0.69 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Vratsa rate 0.66 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.31 and 1.40.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Slavia Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 234 correct results out of 488 settled predictions (48%), with 47 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Vratsa the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 0.69 for Slavia Sofia. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.4 for Slavia Sofia.