Botev Plovdiv
vs
Spartak Varna
The model makes it 19% Botev Plovdiv, 20% draw, 61% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 5.26, 5.00 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.30, Spartak Varna 2.37.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botev Plovdiv
- W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia21 July 2026
Spartak Varna
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
- 4 July 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 28 January 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 December 2025Spartak Varna 0–2 Botev PlovdivCup
- 24 October 2025Spartak Varna 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 18 May 2025Spartak Varna 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
The two sides
Botev Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.63 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botev Plovdiv D-L-W; Spartak Varna D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 2.37 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Plovdiv rate 0.66 in attack and 2.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.64 and 1.04.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 234 correct results out of 488 settled predictions (48%), with 47 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 2.37 for Spartak Varna. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.04 for Spartak Varna.