AC Horsens
vs
Brondby
The model makes it 32% AC Horsens, 27% draw, 41% Brondby — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AC Horsens 1.20, Brondby 1.40.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AC Horsens
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland2 August 2026
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland26 July 2026
Brondby
- W1-0Viborg2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aarhus25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AC Horsens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 3 | Brondby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: AC Horsens vs Brondby
- 19 February 2023Brondby 5–2 AC HorsensSuperliga
- 4 September 2022AC Horsens 0–2 BrondbySuperliga
- 20 December 2020AC Horsens 1–2 BrondbySuperliga
- 27 September 2020Brondby 2–1 AC HorsensSuperliga
- 7 June 2020AC Horsens 3–2 BrondbySuperliga
- 4 August 2019Brondby 1–2 AC HorsensSuperliga
The two sides
AC Horsens carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.54 for Brondby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AC Horsens D-L; Brondby D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for AC Horsens and 1.40 for Brondby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AC Horsens rate 0.51 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brondby rate 0.66 and 1.25.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brondby the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for AC Horsens against 1.4 for Brondby. AC Horsens's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.25 for Brondby.