Gent
vs
KV Mechelen
The model makes it 62% Gent, 22% draw, 16% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Gent 2.01, KV Mechelen 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Gent vs KV Mechelen
- 3 May 2026KV Mechelen 1–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 6 April 2026Gent 1–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 8 March 2026Gent 3–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 16 August 2025KV Mechelen 1–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 7 February 2025KV Mechelen 3–3 GentJupiler Pro League
- 15 September 2024Gent 2–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Gent carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.51 for KV Mechelen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gent D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Gent and 0.91 for KV Mechelen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 0.87 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KV Mechelen rate 0.60 and 1.22.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Gent against 0.91 for KV Mechelen. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.22 for KV Mechelen.