2 October 2026, 01:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle
Referee: Jair Antonio Maruffo, USA
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Seattle Sounders, 26% draw, 25% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Seattle Sounders at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders6%Draw91%Sporting Kansas City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

44'
⚽André Luizassist: Stephen Afrifa
🔁Daniel Musovskiout: Sebastian Gomez
45'
⚽Sebastian Gomezassist: Jordan Morris
51'
Nouhou Tolo
61'
🔁stuar hawkinsout: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
63'
🔁Paul Arriolaout: Caden Clark
63'
76'
🔁Calvin Harrisout: Zorhan Bassong
76'
🔁André Luizout: Shapi Suleymanov
76'
🔁Stephen Afrifaout: Seymour Garfield-Reid
79'
🔁Lasse Berg Johnsenout: Jacob Bartlett
🔁Peter Kingstonout: Mark Bronnik
89'
89+1'
Jacob Bartlett
⚽Cristian Roldán
90'
🔁Albert Rusnákout: Yeimar Gomez
90+3'

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City

58%Possession42%
21Shots22
7On target11
11Corners6

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 16A. RoldanD
  • 39S. HawkinsD
  • 25J. RagenD
  • 5N. ToloD
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 13J. MorrisM
  • 11A. RusnákM
  • 17P. ArriolaM
  • 19D. MusovskiF
Substitutes
  • 8C. ClarkM
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 28Y. GómezD
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziM
  • 4R. SailorD
  • 35Antino LopezD
  • 81M. BronnikF
Coach: B. Schmetzer
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 14C. HarrisM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Substitutes
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 29S. ReidF
  • 93M. SuleymanovF
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 22Z. BassongD
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 42Alexander CunninghamD
Coach: R. Wicky

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City

Seattle Sounders

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
  • W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
  • D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
  • L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles FC13 September 2026
  • L3-4away to FC Dallas6 September 2026
  • L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Kansas City had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Seattle Sounders341210124446-246
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 2 May 2026Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 25 August 2025Seattle Sounders 5–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 15 September 2024Seattle Sounders 2–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 9 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Seattle Sounders at 49%. The goals: André Luiz 44' for Sporting Kansas City, Sebastian Gomez 51' for Seattle Sounders, Cristian Roldán 90' for Seattle Sounders.

How the call on Seattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City has moved

First published on 18 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Seattle Sounders's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Seattle Sounders win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Sporting Kansas City win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.