27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result

BC Place, Vancouver
Referee: Fotis Bazakos
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 3-3 DC United.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Vancouver Whitecaps, 25% draw, 18% DC United — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vancouver Whitecaps7%Draw91%DC United2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Kimito Nono
23'
Kye Rowles
⚽Brian White
25'
⚽Bruno Caicedoassist: Thomas Müller
45+3'
45'
🔁Jackson Hopkinsout: Nikola Marković
65'
⚽Lucas Bartlettassist: Keisuke Kurokawa
🔁Emmanuel Sabbiout: Ryan Gauld
67'
70'
🔁João Gabriel Martins Peglowout: Jared Stroud
70'
🔁Silvan Heftiout: Brandon Servania
⚽Thomas Müllerassist: Aleksa Cvetkovic
72'
80'
⚽Kimito Nonoassist: Hosei Kijima
🔁Oliver Love Larrazout: Johnny Selemani
85'
🔁Rui Modestoout: Sam Adekugbe
85'
86'
🔁Nathan Ordazout: Sean Nealis
86'
🔁Hosei Kijimaout: William Antley

Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United

63%Possession37%
16Shots21
9On target8
7Corners10

Line-ups

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. TakaokaG
  • 70Rui ModestoD
  • 33T. BlackmonD
  • 2M. LabordaD
  • 28T. JohnsonD
  • 23A. CvetkovićM
  • 8O. LarrazM
  • 11E. SabbiM
  • 13T. MüllerM
  • 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezM
  • 24B. WhiteF
Substitutes
  • 32I. BoehmerG
  • 3S. AdekugbeD
  • 25R. GauldM
  • 41N. DjordjevicD
  • 22K. PokuF
  • 15S. RamíirezM
  • 49V. SedinM
  • 63Johnny SelemaniF
  • 4R. VeselinovićD
Coach: J. Sørensen
DC United 4-4-2
  • 1S. JohnsonG
  • 5S. HeftiD
  • 3L. BartlettD
  • 15K. RowlesD
  • 6K. KurokawaD
  • 2K. NonoM
  • 25J. HopkinsM
  • 21A. DozzellM
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 22N. OrdazF
  • 7PeglowF
Substitutes
  • 23B. ServaniaM
  • 8J. StroudM
  • 13S. NealisD
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 20Grant LeveilleG
  • 40K. CastilloM
  • 26A. BonoG
  • 12C. AntleyD
  • 48Gavin TurnerM
Coach: R. Weiler

Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United

Vancouver Whitecaps

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin13 September 2026
  • W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Sporting Kansas City30 August 2026

DC United

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
  • D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
  • W2-1Columbus Crew9 September 2026
  • D0-0Los Angeles FC29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Charlotte22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
  • DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps3217786733+3458
13DC United32712133957-1833

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs DC United

  • 1 October 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 1 February 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 August 2019Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 15 July 2018DC United 3–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and DC United

Vancouver Whitecaps

GoalsAssists

  • B. White182

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vancouver Whitecaps and DC United drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 57% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kimito Nono 16' for DC United, Brian White 25' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Bruno Caicedo 45+3' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Lucas Bartlett 65' for DC United, Thomas Müller 72' for Vancouver Whitecaps, Kimito Nono 80' for DC United.

How the call on Vancouver Whitecaps v DC United has moved

First published on 13 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Vancouver Whitecaps's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Vancouver Whitecaps win57%▲ +9
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. DC United win18%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.