27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result

PayPal Park, San Jose
Referee: Lorenzo Hernandez
Full time3 – 1

Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 32% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Jose Earthquakes99%Draw1%Portland Timbers0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Preston Juddassist: Eduard Löwen
4'
⚽Eduard Löwenassist: Beau Leroux
24'
⚽Preston Juddassist: Paul Marie
29'
Preston Judd
30'
Reid Roberts
40'
🔁Paul Marieout: Benjamin Kikanovic
45'
🔁Timo Wernerout: Nick Fernandez
67'
67'
🔁Jímer Foryout: Ian Smith
67'
🔁Cole Bassettout: Eric Izoita
67'
🔁Ariel Lassiterout: Antony
76'
Eric Miller
🔁Preston Juddout: Luka Jovanovic
76'
🔁Vitor Costaout: Jamar Ricketts
76'
79'
🔁Vincent Janssenout: Gage Guerra
86'
⚽David Da Costaassist: Eric Izoita
🔁Beau Lerouxout: Jack·Skahan
87'
88'
🔁Eric Millerout: Alexander Aravena

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

46%Possession54%
13Shots18
8On target6
5Corners9

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 5-3-2
  • 36E. EdwardsG
  • 3P. MarieD
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 87Vítor CostaD
  • 23E. LöwenM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 34Beau LerouxM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 11T. WernerF
Substitutes
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 40J. GónzalezM
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 17Jack JasinskiD
  • 9L. JovanovićF
  • 28B. KikanovicF
  • 31Francesco MontaliG
  • 2J. RickettsD
Coach: B. Arena
Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernándezD
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 21D. CharáM
  • 7A. LassiterM
  • 10David Pereira da CostaM
  • 99K. VeldeM
  • 14V. JanssenF
Substitutes
  • 11AntonyF
  • 28A. AravenaF
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 88Andrew GuerraF
  • 73Eric IzoitaM
  • 16S. JuraD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 23Ian SmithD
  • 26H. SulteG
Coach: Martí Cifuentes

Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
  • W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
  • W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
  • D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
  • W5-4Minnesota United FC6 September 2026
  • L1-2Austin30 August 2026

What these results say

  • San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5San Jose Earthquakes32131095447+749
11Portland Timbers32117145760-340

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers

  • 24 May 2026Portland Timbers 1–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 11 February 2026San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 June 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 21 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Portland TimbersUS Open Cup
  • 4 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd162

Portland Timbers

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

San Jose Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 3–1. The model had made a win for San Jose Earthquakes its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Preston Judd 4' for San Jose Earthquakes, Eduard Löwen 24' for San Jose Earthquakes, Preston Judd 29' for San Jose Earthquakes, David Da Costa 86' for Portland Timbers.

How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers has moved

First published on 13 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Portland Timbers's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. San Jose Earthquakes win42%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Portland Timbers win32%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.