Regular Season - 33 · 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Dundalk vs Bohemians Premier Division prediction & result

Oriel Park, Dundalk
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Dundalk, 27% draw, 41% Bohemians — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Dundalk 1.51, Bohemians 1.86.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Dundalk vs Bohemians

66%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 9%2-1 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bohemians at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundalk0%Draw6%Bohemians94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Colm Whelan (pen)
28'
Connor Parsons
Harvey Warren
49'
🔁Harvey Warrenout: Egor Vassenin
54'
54'
Senan Mullen
62'
🔁Harry Patrick Vaughanout: Z. Myers
62'
🔁Senan Mullenout: Sadou Diallo
62'
🔁Colm Whelanout: James Taylor
67'
⚽Ross Tierneyassist: Patrick Hickey
🔁leonardo gaxhaout: Declan McDaid
72'
🔁Aodh Dervinout: Norman Garbett
72'
🔁Trevor Clarkeout: Cian dillon
72'
77'
🔁Connor Parsonsout: Dayle Rooney
81'
🔁Darragh Powerout: Niall Morahan
🔁ronan teahanout: Harry Groome
83'
⚽Daryl Horgan (pen)
88'
89'
cian byrne

Match stats — Dundalk vs Bohemians

48%Possession52%
11Shots12
5On target3
2Corners4

Line-ups

Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 5H. WarrenD
  • 4M. AnimasahunD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 18K. BuckleyM
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 15T. ClarkeM
  • 11R. TeahanM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaF
Substitutes
  • 20P. CherrieG
  • 24R. CornwallD
  • 9C. DillonF
  • 14Norman GarbettM
  • 8H. GroomeM
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 16E. VasseninD
  • 23A. M. KeoghM
Coach: C. Kilduff
Bohemians 4-2-3-1
  • 25P. WaltersG
  • 16D. PowerD
  • 12P. HickeyD
  • 24C. ByrneD
  • 15S. MullenD
  • 10D. DevoyM
  • 6J. FloresM
  • 26R. TierneyM
  • 8H. VaughanM
  • 7C. ParsonsM
  • 9C. WhelanF
Substitutes
  • 11D. RooneyF
  • 4N. MorahanM
  • 17A. McDonnellM
  • 41P. MaddenF
  • 18D. James-TaylorF
  • 5S. DialloM
  • 1K. ChorążkaG
  • 3R. BurkeD
  • 23Zane MyersD
Coach: A. Reynolds

Form going into Dundalk vs Bohemians

Dundalk

  • L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
  • L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026

Bohemians

  • W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
  • W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
  • W5-3Derry City21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dundalk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dundalk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dundalk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bohemians won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bohemians scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Bohemians had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Dundalk331011125055-541
2Bohemians3217875738+1959

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Bohemians

  • 19 June 2026Bohemians 1–2 DundalkPremier Division
  • 8 May 2026Dundalk 1–3 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 20 March 2026Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
  • 27 September 2024Dundalk 0–2 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 26 July 2024Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
  • 26 April 2024Dundalk 2–0 BohemiansPremier Division

Leading scorers: Dundalk and Bohemians

Dundalk

  • D. Horgan10 goals10 assists
  • G. Arubi7 goals3 assists

Bohemians

  • C. Whelan12 goals6 assists
  • R. Tierney9 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.51 goals for Dundalk and 1.86 for Bohemians; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Colm Whelan 26' (Bohemians), Ross Tierney 67' (Bohemians), Daryl Horgan 88' (Dundalk).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bohemians the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dundalk against 1.86 for Bohemians. Dundalk's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.83 for Bohemians.