Bastia
vs
Orleans
Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Bastia 1-1 Orleans.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bastia, 28% draw, 23% Orleans — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Bastia 1.78, Orleans 0.87.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bastia vs Orleans
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bastia at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Bastia vs Orleans
Bastia
- L0-1away to Gobelins26 September 2026
- D1-1Cannes17 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 0112 September 2026
- L0-3Amiens5 September 2026
Orleans
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Amiens19 September 2026
- L0-4Versailles12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Le Puy Foot5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bastia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bastia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bastia had two goals or fewer.
- Orleans did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Orleans failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bastia vs Orleans
- 1 October 2026Bastia 1–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 29 March 2021Orleans 2–1 BastiaLigue 3
- 23 October 2020Bastia 1–1 OrleansLigue 3
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.78 goals for Bastia and 0.87 for Orleans; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: C. Melieres 66' (Bastia), R. Legendre 87' (Orleans).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bastia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bastia against 0.87 for Orleans. Bastia's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.99 for Orleans.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.