Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Atlanta United FC, 30% draw, 37% New York City FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC
Line-ups
- 1L. HoyosG
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 55T. JacobD
- 4E. MihajD
- 3E. BáezD
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 20L. BrennanF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 48C. SanchezF
- 35A. FortuneM
- 16Adrian GillM
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 7S. AlzateM
- 70C. DunbarF
- 28William ReillyM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 44D. ChicaD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 6J. SandsD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 8A. PereaM
- 32J. ShoreM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 9B. TraoréF
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 16A. MartínezF
- 88M. JonesF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 27C. FlaxM
- 18G. RanjitsinghG
- 15K. PierreM
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York City FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC
- 12 June 2025New York City FC 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 March 2025Atlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2024New York City FC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 June 2023Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau165
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlanta United FC and New York City FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Matthew Edwards (own goal) 5' for New York City FC, Giuliano Galoppo 10' for Atlanta United FC, Andrés Perea 56' for New York City FC, Ajani Fortune 74' for Atlanta United FC.
How the call on Atlanta United FC v New York City FC has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Atlanta United FC's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Atlanta United FC win33%▼ −7
- Draw30%▲ +1
- New York City FC win37%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.