Atlanta United FC
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Atlanta United FC 1–0 New York City FC
The model makes it 39% Atlanta United FC, 32% draw, 29% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.21, New York City FC 0.90.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atlanta United FC wins, grey are draws, red are New York City FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlanta United FC at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
- L2-3Orlando City SC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami5 September 2026
- L0-2Charlotte29 August 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
New York City FC
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.53 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Atlanta United FC and 0.90 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.66 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.57 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlanta United FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 0.9 for New York City FC. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.13 for New York City FC.