Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Philadelphia Union, 23% draw, 24% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 53% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
Line-ups
- 76A. RickG
- 16B. BenderD
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 4J. LukićM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 28A. AnelloF
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 68J. GriffinD
- 2G. MartínezD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 66F. SundstromD
- 31G. MarksG
- 40R. UzcáteguiD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 19Z. TaifiD
- 57IagoD
- 6R. JanssonD
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesD
- 10M. OjedaM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 77I. AnguloM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 9D. DikeF
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 12Javier OteroG
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 70J. HyltonM
- 65Gustavo Caraballo DelgadoM
- 21N. MillerD
- 11TiagoF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 47 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62 | 74 | -12 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC
- 13 May 2026Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 5 April 2025Philadelphia Union 0–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Orlando City SC 2–4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Orlando City SC 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Philadelphia Union 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union beat Orlando City SC 4–2. The model had made a win for Philadelphia Union its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Milan Iloski (penalty) 11' for Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski 19' for Philadelphia Union, Indiana Vassilev 47' for Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski 51' for Philadelphia Union, Iván Angulo 78' for Orlando City SC, Martin Ojeda 90' for Orlando City SC.
How the call on Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Philadelphia Union win53%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −4
- Orlando City SC win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.