SC Paderborn 07
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV
The model makes it 37% SC Paderborn 07, 31% draw, 32% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 1.18, Hamburger SV 1.06.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- SC Paderborn 07 are 15th on 4 points from 5 games; Hamburger SV are 12th on 6 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart.
- Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 March 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Paderborn 07 at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
Hamburger SV
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hamburger SV had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV
- 2 March 2025SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
- 28 September 2024Hamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
- 10 May 2024SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
- 9 December 2023Hamburger SV 1–2 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
- 5 May 2023Hamburger SV 2–2 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
- 30 October 2022SC Paderborn 07 2–3 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Paderborn 07 carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.66 for Hamburger SV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.06 for Hamburger SV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.57 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hamburger SV rate 0.77 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hamburger SV, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Paderborn 07 the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.06 for Hamburger SV. SC Paderborn 07's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.13 for Hamburger SV.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Paderborn 07 at home · Hamburger SV away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07 are 15th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Hamburger SV are 10th after 5 (between 10th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Paderborn 07 5, Hamburger SV 5.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SC Paderborn 07
- vs VfB Stuttgart27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 26%
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach31 Oct · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt7 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Nov · Bundesligawin 13%
- vs FC Schalke 0428 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
Hamburger SV
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 37%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt1 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach6 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Bayern München28 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.