İstanbulspor
vs
Mardin 1969
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: İstanbulspor 0–1 Mardin 1969
The model makes it 26% İstanbulspor, 29% draw, 45% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: İstanbulspor 0.94, Mardin 1969 1.40.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Mardin 1969 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- İstanbulspor are 19th on 5 points from 10 games; Mardin 1969 are 5th on 18 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Batman Petrolspor.
- Mardin 1969 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mardin 1969 at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969
İstanbulspor
- L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026
- L0-1Esenler Erokspor10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK7 September 2026
Mardin 1969
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
What these results say
- İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 5 |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Mardin 1969
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham31
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- O. Kayode32
- T. Teklić31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
İstanbulspor carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.58 for Mardin 1969. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for İstanbulspor and 1.40 for Mardin 1969. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
İstanbulspor rate 0.56 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mardin 1969 rate 0.55 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives İstanbulspor a 0% chance of the title and Mardin 1969 8.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mardin 1969 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for İstanbulspor against 1.40 for Mardin 1969. İstanbulspor's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.03 for Mardin 1969.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
İstanbulspor at home · Mardin 1969 away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: İstanbulspor 10, Mardin 1969 10.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); İstanbulspor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
İstanbulspor
- at Pendikspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Keçiörengücü21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
- at Sarıyer29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
Mardin 1969
- vs Batman Petrolspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Bandırmaspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Muğlaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.