Sivasspor
vs
Boluspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sivasspor 2–0 Boluspor
The model makes it 60% Sivasspor, 24% draw, 16% Boluspor — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Sivasspor 2.03, Boluspor 0.81.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sivasspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Sivasspor are 11th on 13 points from 11 games; Boluspor are bottom on 1 point from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
- Boluspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Antalyaspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Sivasspor 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 April 2026, ended Boluspor 1–2 Sivasspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sivasspor vs Boluspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sivasspor at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sivasspor vs Boluspor
Sivasspor
- D1-1Sarıyer17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
- W4-1Pendikspor9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
Boluspor
- L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sarıyer19 September 2026
- D1-1Pendikspor12 September 2026
- L0-6away to Bandırmaspor5 September 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sivasspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sivasspor | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Boluspor
- 9 April 2026Boluspor 1–2 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 30 November 2025Sivasspor 1–0 Boluspor1. Lig
- 22 January 2017Sivasspor 3–1 Boluspor1. Lig
- 21 August 2016Boluspor 4–1 Sivasspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Boluspor
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj82
Boluspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sivasspor carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.04 for Boluspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Sivasspor and 0.81 for Boluspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sivasspor rate 0.56 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boluspor rate 0.44 and 2.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sivasspor a 0.2% chance of the title and Boluspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sivasspor the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sivasspor against 0.81 for Boluspor. Sivasspor's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.23 for Boluspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sivasspor at home · Boluspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sivasspor 11, Boluspor 9.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Boluspor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sivasspor
- at Vanspor FK7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Bursaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bodrum FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 35%
- at Iğdır FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 25%
Boluspor
- vs Bodrum FK8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- at Fatih Karagümrük21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.