Antalyaspor
vs
Bursaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Antalyaspor 1–2 Bursaspor
The model makes it 27% Antalyaspor, 27% draw, 46% Bursaspor — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.16, Bursaspor 1.66.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
One-sided: Bursaspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Antalyaspor's rating is built from 11 TFF 1. Lig matches and Bursaspor's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Antalyaspor are 7th on 18 points from 11 games; Bursaspor are 2nd on 25 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Antalyaspor have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to İstanbulspor.
- Bursaspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pendikspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Antalyaspor 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 October 2025, ended Antalyaspor 3–0 Bursaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bursaspor at 46% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
Antalyaspor
1. Lig
- W2-0away to İstanbulspor18 October 2026
- L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026
- W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
Bursaspor
1. Lig
- W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026
- L1-2Mardin 196911 October 2026
- W2-1away to Batman Petrolspor19 September 2026
- D2-2Esenler Erokspor13 September 2026
What these results say
- Antalyaspor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bursaspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
- 29 October 2025Antalyaspor 3–0 BursasporTürkiye Kupası
- 12 January 2021Bursaspor 0–3 AntalyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 10 May 2019Antalyaspor 0–1 BursasporSüper Lig
- 9 December 2018Bursaspor 0–2 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 31 March 2018Antalyaspor 2–0 BursasporSüper Lig
- 29 October 2017Bursaspor 4–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Bursaspor
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek42
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ153
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Antalyaspor carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.65 for Bursaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.66 for Bursaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antalyaspor rate 0.62 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bursaspor rate 0.77 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antalyaspor a 0.2% chance of the title and Bursaspor 31.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Antalyaspor against 1.66 for Bursaspor. Antalyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.15 for Bursaspor.
How the model reaches 46% for Bursaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bursaspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Antalyaspor's ratings add 29 points and Bursaspor's ratings take away 12 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Antalyaspor's ratings58%+29
- Bursaspor's ratings46%−12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Antalyaspor at home · Bursaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Antalyaspor 11, Bursaspor 11.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Bursaspor have let in 1 there.
Bursaspor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Antalyaspor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Antalyaspor
- at Esenler Erokspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 43%
- at Muğlaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 29%
Bursaspor
- vs Sivasspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 58%
- at Vanspor FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 54%
- vs Boluspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 75%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.