Kayserispor
vs
Muğlaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Kayserispor 1–0 Muğlaspor
The model makes it 51% Kayserispor, 28% draw, 21% Muğlaspor — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Kayserispor 1.59, Muğlaspor 0.82.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Kayserispor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Kayserispor's rating is built from 34 Süper Lig matches and Muğlaspor's from 10 TFF 1. Lig matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kayserispor are top on 26 points from 11 games; Muğlaspor are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Kayserispor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Batman Petrolspor.
- Muğlaspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Bursaspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kayserispor at 51% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor
Kayserispor
- D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026
- W3-2Manisa F.K.10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
Muğlaspor
- L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük11 October 2026
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
- D2-2Vanspor FK6 September 2026
What these results say
- Kayserispor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 26 |
| 13 | Muğlaspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kayserispor and Muğlaspor
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi91
- D. Moreno70
- B. Keser32
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kayserispor carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.27 for Muğlaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Kayserispor and 0.82 for Muğlaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kayserispor rate 0.64 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Muğlaspor rate 0.47 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kayserispor a 14.6% chance of the title and Muğlaspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kayserispor against 0.82 for Muğlaspor. Kayserispor's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.53 for Muğlaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kayserispor at home · Muğlaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Kayserispor 11, Muğlaspor 10.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Muğlaspor have let in 2 there.
Muğlaspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Kayserispor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kayserispor
- at Ümraniyespor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 35%
- vs Sarıyer21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- at Keçiörengücü29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Bodrum FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 40%
Muğlaspor
- vs Esenler Erokspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Batman Petrolspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 23%
- vs Mardin 196929 Nov · 1. Ligwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.