11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Corinthians Serie A prediction & result

Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Palmeiras, 26% draw, 14% Corinthians — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jhon Arias
9'
15'
Raniele
⚽Alexander Barbozaassist: Lucas Evangelista
16'
⚽Agustin Giayassist: Jhon Arias
45+1'
⚽Matheus Bidu (OG)
46'
48'
Memphis Depay
Agustin Giay
49'
⚽Agustin Giay
51'
57'
🔁André Carrilloout: Allan
57'
🔁Breno Bidonout: Vitinho
59'
Gabriel Paulista
65'
Vitinho
🔁Vitor Roqueout: Ramon Sosa
69'
🔁Lucas Evangelistaout: Emiliano Martínez
69'
🔁José Manuel Lópezout: Maurício Magalhães Prado
69'
69'
🔁Andréout: André Ramalho
69'
🔁Yuri Albertoout: Pedro Raul
Gustavo Gómez
72'
🔁Ramon Sosaout: Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho
77'
⚽Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho (pen)
81'
83'
🔁Ranieleout: Dieguinho
🔁Gustavo Gómezout: Bruno Fuchs
83'
90+1'
⚽Gustavo Henriqueassist: Vitinho

Match stats — Palmeiras vs Corinthians

55%Possession45%
22Shots12
8On target3
7Corners3
2.73xG0.77

Goals against chances

Palmeiras4 from 2.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Corinthians1 from 0.77 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 26MuriloD
  • 15G. GómezD
  • 2A. BarbozaD
  • 4A. GiayM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 22J. PiquerezM
  • 42J. LópezM
  • 11J. AriasM
  • 9Vitor RoqueF
Substitutes
  • 18MaurícioM
  • 32E. MartínezM
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 50Luis FelipeM
  • 17Marlon FreitasM
  • 10PaulinhoF
  • 56ArthurD
  • 12KhellvenD
  • 19R. SosaF
Coach: Abel Ferreira
Corinthians 4-1-3-2
  • 1Hugo SouzaG
  • 2MatheuzinhoD
  • 3Gabriel PaulistaD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 21Matheus BiduD
  • 14RanieleM
  • 7BrenoM
  • 19A. CarrilloM
  • 49AndreM
  • 9Yuri AlbertoF
  • 10M. DepayF
Substitutes
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 18Pedro RaulF
  • 77J. LingardM
  • 5André RamalhoD
  • 35CharlesM
  • 29AllanM
  • 56Guilherme InácioF
  • 61DieguinhoM
  • 55I. MachadoD
Coach: C. Seedorf

Form going into Palmeiras vs Corinthians

Palmeiras

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
  • W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026

Corinthians

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Internacional7 October 2026
  • L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
  • L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
  • L0-1Santos30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
  • Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973
17Corinthians34910153642-637

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Corinthians

  • 12 April 2026Corinthians 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 8 February 2026Corinthians 0–1 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
  • 31 August 2025Corinthians 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 7 August 2025Palmeiras 0–2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
  • 31 July 2025Corinthians 1–0 PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil

The full Palmeiras vs Corinthians record →

Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Corinthians

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4–1. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alexander Barboza 16' for Palmeiras, Agustin Giay 45+1' for Palmeiras, Matheus Bidu (own goal) 46' for Palmeiras, Agustin Giay 51' for Palmeiras, Gustavo Henrique 90+1' for Corinthians. On expected goals it finished 2.73–0.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palmeiras a 35.8% chance to win the league: 40.2% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.2%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

For Corinthians the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.6% going in: 5.4% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 17.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.8%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Palmeiras v Corinthians has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 53% / 28% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 60% / 26% / 14%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Palmeiras win60%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Corinthians win14%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.