Palmeiras
vs
Corinthians
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians
The model makes it 53% Palmeiras, 28% draw, 19% Corinthians — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.75, Corinthians 0.61.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 53% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
Corinthians
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
- Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
- 12 April 2026Corinthians 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 February 2026Corinthians 0–1 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
- 31 August 2025Corinthians 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 7 August 2025Palmeiras 0–2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 31 July 2025Corinthians 1–0 PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil
- 12 April 2025Palmeiras 2–0 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Corinthians
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.67 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Palmeiras and 0.61 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 1.04 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.73 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 32.8% chance of the title and Corinthians 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.61 for Corinthians. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.07 for Corinthians.