Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Karpaty.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dynamo Kyiv, 25% draw, 29% Karpaty — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo Kyiv at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty
Line-ups
- 1H. BushchanG
- 5O. SychD
- 94T. KędzioraD
- 32T. MykhavkoD
- 44V. DubinchakD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 7A. YarmolenkoM
- 21J. LonwijkM
- 15V. RubchynskyiM
- 22V. KabaevM
- 11M. PonomarenkoF
- 35R. NeshcheretG
- 71V. SurkisG
- 40K. BilovarD
- 66A. ThiareD
- 23N. MalyshD
- 91M. MykhaylenkoM
- 8O. PikhalyonokM
- 9N. VoloshynM
- 47Gustavo PradoM
- 80R. MysakG
- 11D. MiroshnichenkoD
- 4V. BabogloD
- 47Jean PedrosoD
- 17R. VantukhD
- 20M. SapugaM
- 70Xeber AlkainM
- 8A. ChachuaM
- 10MohaM
- 31N. RusynM
- 9J. SéryF
- 99Y. GeretaG
- 55T. StetskovD
- 5A. BulezaD
- 73R. LyakhD
- 14Iván CaleroD
- 21Bruno IglesiasM
- 19Y. KarabinM
- 28O. DyedovF
- 18Eriki Daniel Rodrigues BentoM
Form going into Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
- W2-0away to Zorya Luhansk19 September 2026
- W3-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 September 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bukovyna31 August 2026
Karpaty
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kolos Kovalivka11 September 2026
- L1-2Shakhtar Donetsk5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Livyi Bereh29 August 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Kyiv kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Karpaty scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Karpaty failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Karpaty conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty
- 11 October 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 KarpatyPremier League
- 4 April 2026Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 KarpatyPremier League
- 27 September 2025Karpaty 3–3 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 23 February 2025Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 KarpatyPremier League
- 17 August 2024Karpaty 1–3 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 27 October 2019Dynamo Kyiv 1–1 KarpatyPremier League
Leading scorers: Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko20
Karpaty
GoalsAssists
- Joaquinete20
- N. Rusyn11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.