Platense vs Argentinos Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Platense 1-1 Argentinos Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Platense, 32% draw, 40% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 3.57, 3.13 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Argentinos Juniors at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. CozzaniG
- 4A. LagosD
- 34M. MendiaD
- 31V. CuestaD
- 3T. SilvaD
- 15M. AmarfilM
- 24M. BarriosM
- 7G. MaineroM
- 18B. MerliniM
- 43N. RetamarM
- 79B. SepúlvedaF
- 5I. GómezM
- 99G. LencinaF
- 21A. LottiF
- 33J. GautoF
- 11N. LópezF
- 8F. LópezD
- 29F. MinervaM
- 6E. RaggioD
- 22N. SumavilG
- 25B. CortésG
- 17F. ParedesD
- 16F. ÁlvarezD
- 6F. VázquezD
- 20S. PrietoD
- 5Facundo CarrizoM
- 15K. GutiérrezM
- 11N. OrozM
- 7D. PorcelF
- 27T. MolinaF
- 9G. VerónF
- 35A. AlcarazM
- 26C. BravoD
- 22K. CoronelD
- 10G. FlorentínM
- 19M. GiménezF
- 4É. GodoyD
- 32G. InfantinoM
- 48F. JainikoskiF
- 8H. LópezM
Form going into Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
Platense
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Velez Sarsfield5 October 2026
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
Argentinos Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Tigre4 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rosario Central20 September 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
What these results say
- Platense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
- 23 March 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 July 2025Platense 0–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 February 2025Argentinos Juniors 1–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 October 2024Platense 2–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2024Argentinos Juniors 3–1 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
The result against the call
Platense and Argentinos Juniors drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Argentinos Juniors at 40% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Diego Rodrigo Porcel 11' for Argentinos Juniors, Franco Zapiola Yamartino (penalty) 70' for Platense. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Platense a 50.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.1% after a win, 50.3% after a draw, 63.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 50.3%.
For Argentinos Juniors the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 56.1% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 33.2%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.