Platense
vs
Argentinos Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Platense 0–1 Argentinos Juniors
The model makes it 28% Platense, 33% draw, 39% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 3.57, 3.03 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Platense 0.83, Argentinos Juniors 1.15.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
Platense
- L0-1Newell's Old Boys20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
Argentinos Juniors
- L0-1away to Rosario Central20 September 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026
What these results say
- Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Platense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
- 23 March 2026Argentinos Juniors 1–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 July 2025Platense 0–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 February 2025Argentinos Juniors 1–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 October 2024Platense 2–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 February 2024Argentinos Juniors 3–1 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 3 October 2023Platense 0–0 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
The two sides
Platense carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.76 for Argentinos Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.83 goals for Platense and 1.15 for Argentinos Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Platense rate 0.65 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Argentinos Juniors rate 0.86 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Platense against 1.15 for Argentinos Juniors. Platense's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.04 for Argentinos Juniors.