Stal Mielec
vs
Warta Poznań
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Mielec 1–2 Warta Poznań
The model makes it 33% Stal Mielec, 26% draw, 41% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.73, Warta Poznań 2.11.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stal Mielec are 16th on 9 points from 9 games; Warta Poznań are 3rd on 15 points from 9 games — I Liga.
- Stal Mielec have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-7 defeat away to Lechia Gdansk.
- Warta Poznań have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Last 6 meetings: Warta Poznań 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2024, ended Warta Poznań 5–2 Stal Mielec.
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Warta Poznań at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
Stal Mielec
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Siedlce29 August 2026
- L0-4away to ŁKS Łódź23 August 2026
Warta Poznań
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Miedz Legnica30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chrobry Głogów21 August 2026
What these results say
- Stal Mielec did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Warta Poznań scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 9 |
| 3 | Warta Poznań | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- 22 April 2024Warta Poznań 5–2 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
- 23 October 2023Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 27 May 2023Stal Mielec 1–0 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 11 November 2022Warta Poznań 1–1 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
- 16 April 2022Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
- 24 October 2021Warta Poznań 0–0 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
The two sides
Stal Mielec carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.4 for Warta Poznań. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Stal Mielec and 2.11 for Warta Poznań. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stal Mielec rate 0.61 in attack and 2.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Warta Poznań rate 0.70 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Mielec a 0.1% chance of the title and Warta Poznań 17%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Warta Poznań the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Stal Mielec against 2.11 for Warta Poznań. Stal Mielec's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.74 for Warta Poznań.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stal Mielec at home · Warta Poznań away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Mielec 9, Warta Poznań 9.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stal Mielec
- at Miedz Legnica17 Oct · I Ligawin 24%
- vs Chrobry Głogów24 Oct · I Ligawin 34%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 Oct · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Ruch Chorzów7 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- at Polonia Warszawa21 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
Warta Poznań
- vs Unia Skierniewice16 Oct · I Ligawin 54%
- vs ŁKS Łódź26 Oct · I Ligawin 43%
- at Podbeskidzie31 Oct · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Polonia Warszawa7 Nov · I Ligawin 47%
- at Ruch Chorzów21 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.