Flamengo vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Flamengo, 24% draw, 19% Fluminense — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Fluminense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 8SaúlM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 30J. FreitasF
- 77Johnny GóesD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 19G. PlataF
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 44VitãoD
- 42AndrewG
- 13DaniloD
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 29J. MillánD
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 32L. AcostaM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 94OtávioM
- 35HérculesM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 90K. SernaF
- 7HulkF
Form going into Flamengo vs Fluminense
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
Fluminense
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Fluminense
- 12 April 2026Fluminense 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 8 March 2026Fluminense 0–0 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 25 January 2026Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 20 November 2025Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 20 July 2025Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Fluminense
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1–0. The model had made a win for Flamengo its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Jorge Carrascal 65' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Flamengo a 64.0% chance to win the league: 69.4% after a win, 57.9% after a draw, 50.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.4%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
For Fluminense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 72.6% going in: 87.2% after a win, 75.2% after a draw, 69.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.1%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Flamengo v Fluminense has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Flamengo's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Flamengo win57%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Fluminense win19%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.