Flamengo
vs
Fluminense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Flamengo 2–0 Fluminense
The model makes it 53% Flamengo, 26% draw, 21% Fluminense — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.06, Fluminense 0.88.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Flamengo vs Fluminense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 53% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Fluminense
Flamengo
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
- W2-0Mirassol2 September 2026
- W3-0Botafogo30 August 2026
Fluminense
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Fluminense
- 12 April 2026Fluminense 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 8 March 2026Fluminense 0–0 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 25 January 2026Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 20 November 2025Fluminense 2–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 20 July 2025Flamengo 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 16 March 2025Flamengo 0–0 FluminenseCarioca - 1
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Fluminense
Flamengo
- Pedro16 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
- Hulk7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Flamengo carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.82 for Fluminense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Flamengo and 0.88 for Fluminense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 1.22 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fluminense rate 1.00 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 66.6% chance of the title and Fluminense 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.88 for Fluminense. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.07 for Fluminense.