Gremio
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Gremio 1–0 Internacional
The model makes it 40% Gremio, 31% draw, 29% Internacional — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.37, Internacional 0.99.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gremio vs Internacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 40% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Internacional
Gremio
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
Internacional
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Internacional
- 3 September 2026Gremio 3–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
- 27 August 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
- 11 April 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 8 March 2026Internacional 1–1 GremioGaúcho - 1
- 1 March 2026Gremio 3–0 InternacionalGaúcho - 1
- 25 January 2026Internacional 4–2 GremioGaúcho - 1
Leading scorers: Gremio and Internacional
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.63 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Gremio and 0.99 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.75 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 0.75 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gremio the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gremio against 0.99 for Internacional. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.16 for Internacional.