Gremio vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-1 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Gremio, 29% draw, 28% Internacional — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Gremio at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 82WallaceD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 23MarlonD
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 11TetêF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 18João PedroD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 12AnthoniG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 18JuninhoD
- 35B. AguirreM
- 5R. VillagraM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 28VitinhoM
- 9AlerrandroM
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 49J. BezerraF
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 17N. EliassonM
- 30CalebeM
- 27PaulinhoM
- 4F. TorresD
Form going into Gremio vs Internacional
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Remo7 October 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
Internacional
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Corinthians7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Internacional
- 3 September 2026Gremio 3–1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
- 27 August 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
- 11 April 2026Internacional 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 8 March 2026Internacional 1–1 GremioGaúcho - 1
- 1 March 2026Gremio 3–0 InternacionalGaúcho - 1
Leading scorers: Gremio and Internacional
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio and Internacional drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gremio at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Vitinho 33' for Internacional, Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos 73' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 1.48–0.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gremio a 37.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.4% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.6%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
For Internacional the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.6% going in: 8.5% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 32.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.2%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gremio v Internacional has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Gremio's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Gremio win43%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Internacional win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.