Santos
vs
Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 30% Santos, 19% draw, 51% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.33, 5.26 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Santos 1.92, Atletico Paranaense 2.52.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Santos
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Botafogo16 July 2026
- W3-1Vitoria30 May 2026
- L2-3away to Gremio23 May 2026
- L0-3Coritiba17 May 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
- W1-0Mirassol30 May 2026
- W2-1away to Remo24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
- 12 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 3 December 2023Atletico Paranaense 3–0 SantosSerie A
- 5 August 2023Santos 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 28 September 2022Santos 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 4 June 2022Atletico Paranaense 2–2 SantosSerie A
- 30 October 2021Atletico Paranaense 0–1 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa7 goals2 assists
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.86 for Atletico Paranaense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Santos L-L-W-L-D; Atletico Paranaense W-W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Santos and 2.52 for Atletico Paranaense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos rate 0.96 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Paranaense rate 1.07 and 1.06.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santos a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Santos against 2.52 for Atletico Paranaense. Santos's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.06 for Atletico Paranaense.