Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 0-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Santos, 19% draw, 53% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.57, 5.26 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazaoG
- 25Gabriel MeninoD
- 98A. FriasD
- 26Joao AnaniasD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 28C. OlivaM
- 5Joao SchmidtM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 22A. BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 1DiogenesG
- 15Willian AraoM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 30MiguelitoM
- 42Joao AlencarD
- 57NadsonF
- 14Luan PeresD
- 11RonyF
- 16ThacianoM
- 1MycaelG
- 29G. BenavidezD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao Cruz
- 9K. ViverosF
- 42Mateus Soares
- 18K. A. Calderon VargasF
- 6Leo Derik
- 25DantasD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 3LeoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
- 2Gilberto Junior
Form going into Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Santos
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
- 12 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 3 December 2023Atletico Paranaense 3–0 SantosSerie A
- 5 August 2023Santos 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 28 September 2022Santos 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 4 June 2022Atletico Paranaense 2–2 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Atletico Paranaense
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Paranaense won 2–0 at Santos. The model had made a win for Atletico Paranaense its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: K. Viveros 14' for Atletico Paranaense, K. Viveros 26' for Atletico Paranaense. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.15.