Palmeiras
vs
Internacional
The model makes it 45% Palmeiras, 23% draw, 32% Internacional — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.95, Internacional 1.63.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Palmeiras
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
- W1-0Chapecoense31 May 2026
- W3-0away to Flamengo24 May 2026
Internacional
- D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
- L1-3away to RB Bragantino31 May 2026
- L0-2away to Vitoria23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 47 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Internacional
- 13 February 2026Internacional 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 13 September 2025Palmeiras 4–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 16 April 2025Internacional 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 4 August 2024Internacional 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 17 April 2024Palmeiras 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 12 November 2023Palmeiras 3–0 InternacionalSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.77 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Palmeiras W-W-W-L-W; Internacional L-L-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Palmeiras and 1.63 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 0.78 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 1.08 and 1.32.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 83.6% chance of the title and Internacional 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Palmeiras against 1.63 for Internacional. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.32 for Internacional.