RB Bragantino
vs
Corinthians
The model makes it 58% RB Bragantino, 23% draw, 19% Corinthians — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.93, Corinthians 1.01.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
RB Bragantino
- D0-0Coritiba26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Fluminense17 July 2026
- W3-1Internacional31 May 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama24 May 2026
- W2-0Vitoria17 May 2026
Corinthians
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Gremio30 May 2026
- W1-0Atletico Mineiro24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RB Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 31 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Corinthians
- 12 February 2026Corinthians 2–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 15 January 2026RB Bragantino 3–0 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
- 5 November 2025RB Bragantino 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 13 July 2025Corinthians 1–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 16 January 2025RB Bragantino 1–2 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
- 21 August 2024Corinthians 1–2 RB BragantinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
The two sides
RB Bragantino carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.73 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): RB Bragantino W-W-W-D-D; Corinthians W-W-W-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for RB Bragantino and 1.01 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Bragantino rate 1.02 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.77 and 1.00.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives RB Bragantino a 0.1% chance of the title and Corinthians 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.01 for Corinthians. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1 for Corinthians.