Argentinos Juniors
vs
Racing Club
The model makes it 47% Argentinos Juniors, 24% draw, 29% Racing Club — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.78, Racing Club 1.35.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Racing Club
- 7 February 2026Racing Club 2–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 August 2025Argentinos Juniors 4–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 February 2025Racing Club 2–3 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2024Racing Club 3–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 February 2023Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 September 2022Racing Club 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Argentinos Juniors carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.65 for Racing Club. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Argentinos Juniors L-W-W-W-W; Racing Club D-W-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Argentinos Juniors and 1.35 for Racing Club. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Argentinos Juniors rate 0.84 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Club rate 0.74 and 1.12.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors against 1.35 for Racing Club. Argentinos Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.12 for Racing Club.