Defensa Y Justicia
vs
Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 33% Defensa Y Justicia, 20% draw, 47% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 3.03, 5.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 2.02, Newell's Old Boys 2.43.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Defensa Y Justicia
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza4 May 2026
- L0-4Boca Juniors23 April 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield4 May 2026
- D1-1Instituto Cordoba26 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys
- 8 February 2026Newell's Old Boys 2–3 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 May 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–2 Newell's Old BoysCopa Argentina
- 12 February 2025Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 April 2024Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
The two sides
Defensa Y Justicia carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.68 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Defensa Y Justicia L-L-D-W-L; Newell's Old Boys D-D-W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Defensa Y Justicia and 2.43 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.85 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.90 and 1.26.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Defensa Y Justicia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Defensa Y Justicia a 0.1% chance of the title and Newell's Old Boys 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 2.43 for Newell's Old Boys. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.26 for Newell's Old Boys.