Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Defensa Y Justicia, 20% draw, 42% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Newell's Old Boys at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 16A. PortilloD
- 29D. FernandezD
- 21D. MartinezD
- 3F. RomanD
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PerezM
- 17A. HauschM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 24J. GutierrezM
- 9L. FernandezF
- 36L. AmadeG
- 5J. LopezM
- 22M. PorcelM
- 26J. LuccoF
- 45T. MartinezM
- 27D. BlancoM
- 2S. LuceroD
- 6E. BurdinD
- 7T. PerezF
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 17L. GiannettiD
- 28J. RussoD
- 19J. GomezM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20F. GuchM
- 39T. RiosM
- 99I. RamirezF
- 21G. AriasG
- 18M. E. GarciaF
- 15A. SonoraM
- 26R. HerreraM
- 3M. LucianoD
- 8D. SoteloM
- 27L. GomezM
- 24F. EscobarD
- 2I. GlavinovichD
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys
Defensa Y Justicia
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
Newell's Old Boys
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys
- 8 February 2026Newell's Old Boys 2–3 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 May 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–2 Newell's Old BoysCopa Argentina
- 12 February 2025Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 May 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
The result against the call
Defensa Y Justicia beat Newell's Old Boys 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Newell's Old Boys at 42% and given a win for Defensa Y Justicia 38%. The goals: F. Roman 32' for Defensa Y Justicia, T. Perez 68' for Defensa Y Justicia, B. Cabrera 83' for Newell's Old Boys. Sent off: Jeronimo Russo (Newell's Old Boys) 40'. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.62.