Cruzeiro
vs
Mirassol
The model makes it 66% Cruzeiro, 20% draw, 14% Mirassol — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 2.25, Mirassol 0.97.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cruzeiro
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense31 May 2026
- W2-1Chapecoense24 May 2026
Mirassol
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Paranaense30 May 2026
- W1-0Fluminense23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
- 11 February 2026Mirassol 2–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 18 August 2025Mirassol 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 29 March 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 MirassolSerie A
The two sides
Cruzeiro carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.65 for Mirassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Cruzeiro W-D-W-L-W; Mirassol W-L-W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.97 for Mirassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruzeiro rate 1.08 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mirassol rate 0.73 and 1.10.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Cruzeiro against 0.97 for Mirassol. Cruzeiro's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.1 for Mirassol.