Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Cruzeiro, 20% draw, 14% Mirassol — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 5Ze LucasM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 70KenjiM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 51V. LamounierG
- 27G. RojasD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 8GersonM
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 97L. RodriguezF
- 90ThomazellaG
- 18EliasD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 80WallissonM
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 8DenilsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 17FernandinhoF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 25Neto Moura
- 77AlessonF
- 95Edson CariocaF
- 12Victor LuisD
- 10Chico KimM
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
- W2-1Gremio17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
- 11 February 2026Mirassol 2–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 18 August 2025Mirassol 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 29 March 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Mirassol
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro beat Mirassol 3–1. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Joao Marcelo 12' for Cruzeiro, Reinaldo (penalty) 27' for Mirassol, Kaio Jorge 76' for Cruzeiro, Wesley 84' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.31.