Flamengo
vs
Vitoria
The model makes it 68% Flamengo, 21% draw, 11% Vitoria — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.01, Vitoria 0.66.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Flamengo
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
- W3-0Coritiba30 May 2026
- L0-3Palmeiras24 May 2026
Vitoria
- L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026
- L0-2away to Remo26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo23 July 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama16 July 2026
- L1-3away to Santos30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | +19 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Vitoria
- 15 May 2026Vitoria 2–0 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
- 23 April 2026Flamengo 2–1 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
- 11 February 2026Vitoria 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 26 August 2025Flamengo 8–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 6 April 2025Vitoria 1–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 8 December 2024Flamengo 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers
Flamengo
- Pedro12 goals4 assists
Vitoria
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Flamengo carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.4 for Vitoria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Flamengo L-W-W-D-D; Vitoria L-W-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Flamengo and 0.66 for Vitoria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 0.81 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitoria rate 0.51 and 1.31.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 15.4% chance of the title and Vitoria 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.66 for Vitoria. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.31 for Vitoria.