Santos Laguna
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Santos Laguna 2–1 Pumas UNAM
The model makes it 37% Santos Laguna, 26% draw, 37% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.51, Pumas UNAM 1.51.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Santos Laguna and Pumas UNAM are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Santos Laguna are 14th on 13 points from 11 games; Pumas UNAM are 12th on 13 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Santos Laguna are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Atletico San Luis.
- Pumas UNAM are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Cruz Azul.
- Last 6 meetings: Pumas UNAM 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Pumas UNAM 4–0 Santos Laguna.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
Santos Laguna
- W2-1away to Atletico San Luis11 October 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
Pumas UNAM
- D3-3Cruz Azul12 October 2026
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Santos Laguna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Pumas UNAM
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
- 31 January 2026Pumas UNAM 4–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 13 July 2025Santos Laguna 3–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Pumas UNAM 2–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 14 July 2024Santos Laguna 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 19 February 2024Pumas UNAM 3–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 3 September 2023Santos Laguna 2–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Pumas UNAM
Santos Laguna
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho61
- R. Morales33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santos Laguna carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.63 for Pumas UNAM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.51 for Pumas UNAM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santos Laguna rate 0.66 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pumas UNAM rate 0.84 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pumas UNAM, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santos Laguna a 0% chance of the title and Pumas UNAM 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 1.51 for Pumas UNAM. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.32 for Pumas UNAM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santos Laguna at home · Pumas UNAM away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Santos LagunaPumas UNAM
Santos Laguna are 12th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 12th and 17th so far); Pumas UNAM are 12th after 11 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Santos Laguna 11, Pumas UNAM 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Santos Laguna
- at Club Tijuana26 Oct · Liga MXwin 23%
- vs Necaxa1 Nov · Liga MXwin 48%
- at Atlante FC7 Nov · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Leon21 Nov · Liga MXwin 42%
Pumas UNAM
- vs Tigres UANL25 Oct · Liga MXwin 43%
- at Puebla31 Oct · Liga MXwin 38%
- vs Club America8 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
- vs Monterrey22 Nov · Liga MXwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.