Rio Ave vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 40% Estrela — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estrela at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rio Ave vs Estrela
Line-ups
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 3S. GarciaD
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 80S. ClemmensenM
- 79M. PatricioM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 6N. AbbeyD
- 54G. LiavasM
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 21R. ŠilerF
- 77D. ŠpikićF
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 19Joan JordánM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 49R. MutebaF
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 8RobinhoM
Form going into Rio Ave vs Estrela
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
Estrela
Primeira Liga
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 7 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Estrela
- 15 March 2026Rio Ave 2–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 October 2025Estrela 1–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave 2–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Estrela 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 14 April 2024Estrela 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Estrela
Rio Ave
GoalsAssists
- J. Blesa31
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
- L. Antonetti41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Estrela at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ianis Stoica 21' for Estrela, Francisco Petrasso 45+3' for Rio Ave, Abraham Marcus 53' for Estrela, Roland Galcik 56' for Rio Ave, Abraham Marcus 61' for Estrela, Jalen Blesa (penalty) 78' for Rio Ave.
How the call on Rio Ave v Estrela has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Rio Ave's chance of winning, down 11 points.
- Rio Ave win32%▼ −11
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Estrela win40%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.