Rio Ave
vs
Estrela
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Rio Ave, 27% draw, 37% Estrela — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.72, Estrela 1.79.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Rio Ave vs Estrela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estrela at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rio Ave vs Estrela
Line-ups
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 3S. GarciaD
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 80S. ClemmensenM
- 79M. PatricioM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 6N. AbbeyD
- 54G. LiavasM
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 21R. ŠilerF
- 77D. ŠpikićF
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 19Joan JordánM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 49R. MutebaF
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 8RobinhoM
Form going into Rio Ave vs Estrela
Rio Ave
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
- L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
Estrela
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nacional30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Alverca15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Rio Ave | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
| 6 | Estrela | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Estrela
- 15 March 2026Rio Ave 2–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 25 October 2025Estrela 1–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave 2–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Estrela 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 14 April 2024Estrela 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 2 December 2023Rio Ave 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Estrela
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Estrela
- L. Antonetti4 goals
- I. Stoica3 goals1 assists
- A. Marcus2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.72 goals for Rio Ave and 1.79 for Estrela; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ianis Stoica 21' (Estrela), Francisco Petrasso 45' (Rio Ave), Abraham Marcus 53' (Estrela), Roland Galcik 56' (Rio Ave), Abraham Marcus 61' (Estrela), Jalen Blesa 78' (Rio Ave).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estrela the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rio Ave against 1.79 for Estrela. Rio Ave's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.39 for Estrela.