Moreirense
vs
Maritimo
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Moreirense, 29% draw, 29% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.58, Maritimo 1.13.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Moreirense vs Maritimo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Moreirense at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moreirense vs Maritimo
Line-ups
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 1AranhaG
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 10Martín TejónF
- 21I. AlaniM
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 8M. DominguezM
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 27S. BambaF
Form going into Moreirense vs Maritimo
Moreirense
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Arouca16 August 2026
Maritimo
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Moreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Maritimo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Maritimo
- 6 March 2022Moreirense 0–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 1 October 2021Maritimo 0–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 7 March 2021Maritimo 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 25 October 2020Moreirense 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 8 March 2020Moreirense 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2019Maritimo 2–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.58 goals for Moreirense and 1.13 for Maritimo; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Manuel Mendonça 17' (Moreirense), Leonardo Vonić 28' (Moreirense), Romain Correia 79' (Maritimo), Alexandre Parsemain 86' (Moreirense).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Moreirense the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Moreirense against 1.13 for Maritimo. Moreirense's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.28 for Maritimo.