Moreirense vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Moreirense, 31% draw, 34% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Moreirense at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moreirense vs Maritimo
Line-ups
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 1AranhaG
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 10Martín TejónF
- 21I. AlaniM
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 8M. DominguezM
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 27S. BambaF
Form going into Moreirense vs Maritimo
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs Maritimo
- 6 March 2022Moreirense 0–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 1 October 2021Maritimo 0–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 7 March 2021Maritimo 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 25 October 2020Moreirense 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 8 March 2020Moreirense 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
The result against the call
Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. The model had made a win for Moreirense its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Manuel Mendonça 17' for Moreirense, Leonardo Vonić 28' for Moreirense, Romain Correia 79' for Maritimo, Alexandre Parsemain (penalty) 86' for Moreirense.
How the call on Moreirense v Maritimo has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Maritimo's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Moreirense win35%▲ +2
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Maritimo win34%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.