El Geish vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Geish 0-1 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% El Geish, 30% draw, 29% Smouha SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Geish at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Geish vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18E. El SayedG
- 24El Zoughbi
- 6K. SotohiD
- 4M. CamachoD
- 19H. El GabryD
- 32Y. MostafaM
- 22M. El KhawagaM
- 30M. AtefM
- 12I. Mohareb
- 11K. Tarek
- 9F. HatemF
- 77M. Magdy
- 8A. ZolaM
- 15M. ShabanaD
- 21Khaled Ramadan
- 5H. SouissiM
- 13K. KomlaviF
- 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
- 10M. HanyF
- 25A. TarekM
- 28A. MayhoubG
- 2H. HafezD
- 24M. Ragab
- 4Abdel Rasoul AhmedD
- 3M. DesoukiD
- 7A. El SisiM
- 21A. MohamedM
- 19M. AdelM
- 66K. MohamedM
- 14MakaronaM
- 23F. FaridF
- 1H. TaimourG
- 6A. Amer
- 13C. NiyigenaD
- 30A. GamalD
- 10K. El GhandourM
- 8S. Fekri
- 27H. BalahaF
- 9M. HamdiM
- 29G. Chukwudi
Form going into El Geish vs Smouha SC
El Geish
Premier League
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
Smouha SC
Premier League
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Geish vs Smouha SC
- 9 August 2025Smouha SC 1–1 El GeishPremier League
- 6 May 2025Smouha SC 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 23 November 2024El Geish 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 22 June 2024El Geish 2–2 Smouha SCPremier League
- 27 December 2023Smouha SC 1–0 El GeishPremier League
Leading scorers: El Geish and Smouha SC
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Smouha SC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Smouha SC won 1–0 at El Geish. The model had leaned towards a win for El Geish at 41% and given a win for Smouha SC 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Makarona 62' for Smouha SC. Sent off: Yehia Mostafa (El Geish) 40'. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.00.
How the call on El Geish v Smouha SC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is El Geish's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- El Geish win41%▲ +4
- Draw30%=
- Smouha SC win29%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.