El Geish
vs
Smouha SC
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Geish 0-1 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% El Geish, 31% draw, 30% Smouha SC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: El Geish 1.35, Smouha SC 1.04.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: El Geish vs Smouha SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Geish at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into El Geish vs Smouha SC
El Geish
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
- W1-0El Mokawloon22 August 2026
Smouha SC
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al Masry22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: El Geish and Smouha SC
El Geish
- Islam Mohareb2 goals1 assists
- Mohamed Atef1 goals3 assists
Smouha SC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
El Geish carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.25 for Smouha SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for El Geish and 1.04 for Smouha SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
El Geish rate 0.47 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Smouha SC rate 0.53 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives El Geish the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for El Geish against 1.04 for Smouha SC. El Geish's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.76 for Smouha SC.