Gaziantep FK
vs
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gaziantep FK 0-0 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Gaziantep FK, 30% draw, 34% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.24, Fenerbahçe 1.17.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gaziantep FK at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 25K. Tobiasz
- 2L. Perez
- 4A. Kizildag
- 14M. Abena
- 23K. Calhanoglu
- 6U. Meleke
- 18D. Sorescu
- 8V. Gidado
- 44A. Maxim
- 10K. Kozlowski
- 28H. Dervisoglu
- 35A. Dadakdeniz
- 21A. Sylla
- 5E. Sarikaya
- 7J. Bacuna
- 3D. Camara
- 61O. Ozcicek
- 17K. Gassama
- 19S. Dursun
- 22S. Hansen
- 31Ederson
- 18M. Muldur
- 37M. Skriniar
- 15N. Ake
- 3A. Brown
- 91N. Kante
- 5I. Yuksek
- 6M. Guendouzi
- 11M. Greenwood
- 9R. Lukaku
- 7K. Akturkoglu
- 34M. Gunok
- 27N. Semedo
- 14Y. E. Demir
- 21K. Peprah
- 22L. Mercan
- 28B. Elmaz
- 19V. Muriqi
- 17I. Kahveci
- 70O. Aydin
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep FK
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor23 August 2026
- D1-1Alanyaspor15 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gaziantep FK | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
- 17 March 2026Fenerbahçe 4–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 4 March 2026Gaziantep FK 0–4 FenerbahçeTürkiye Kupası
- 27 October 2025Gaziantep FK 0–4 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 26 April 2025Gaziantep FK 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 27 February 2025Gaziantep FK 1–4 FenerbahçeTürkiye Kupası
- 2 December 2024Fenerbahçe 3–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
- M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gaziantep FK carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.73 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.17 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gaziantep FK rate 0.70 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 0.86 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gaziantep FK the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 1.17 for Fenerbahçe. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.09 for Fenerbahçe.