Benfica vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Benfica, 23% draw, 16% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 61% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Line-ups
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 27RafaM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 22J. DuránF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 72A. CabralF
- 13J. KamińskiM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 16ManuM
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsD
- 77MuriloM
- 6Zé CarlosM
- 12A. LausenM
- 27A. MoreiraM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 17Sergio BermejoF
- 19GuilhermeM
- 7T. TouréF
- 3EspigaresD
- 32M. FernándezM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 99M. KabaF
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 11Joelson FernandesF
Form going into Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Benfica
Primeira Liga
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
GIL Vicente
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
- W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
- GIL Vicente kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 22 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs GIL Vicente
- 2 March 2026GIL Vicente 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 26 September 2025Benfica 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 28 March 2025GIL Vicente 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2024Benfica 5–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 4 February 2024Benfica 3–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and GIL Vicente
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis93
- G. Prestianni64
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 3–1. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Hector Hernandez 7' for GIL Vicente, Vangelis Pavlidis 29' for Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis (penalty) 87' for Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni 90+3' for Benfica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.