Benfica
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Benfica, 24% draw, 18% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.44, GIL Vicente 0.85.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Line-ups
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 27RafaM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 3A. CircatiD
- 22J. DuránF
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 72A. CabralF
- 13J. KamińskiM
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 16ManuM
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsD
- 77MuriloM
- 6Zé CarlosM
- 12A. LausenM
- 27A. MoreiraM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 17Sergio BermejoF
- 19GuilhermeM
- 7T. TouréF
- 3EspigaresD
- 32M. FernándezM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 99M. KabaF
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 11Joelson FernandesF
Form going into Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Benfica
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
- W2-1Estoril31 August 2026
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
GIL Vicente
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
- W2-0Casa Pia24 August 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 16 |
| 9 | GIL Vicente | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs GIL Vicente
- 13 September 2026Benfica 3–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 2 March 2026GIL Vicente 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 26 September 2025Benfica 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 28 March 2025GIL Vicente 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2024Benfica 5–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 4 February 2024Benfica 3–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and GIL Vicente
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
- G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
- L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists
GIL Vicente
- Héctor Hernández3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.44 goals for Benfica and 0.85 for GIL Vicente; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Hector Hernandez 7' (GIL Vicente), Vangelis Pavlidis 29' (Benfica), Vangelis Pavlidis 87' (Benfica), Gianluca Prestianni 90' (Benfica).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Benfica against 0.85 for GIL Vicente. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.5/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1 for GIL Vicente.