Famalicao
vs
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Famalicao, 30% draw, 36% Sporting CP — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Famalicao 1.17, Sporting CP 1.26.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 33P. SalasF
- 3L. RealpeD
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 5L. MeyerD
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 18R. BeneyF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesM
- 31Luis GuilhermeM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 28J. DerryF
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 30KaiqueG
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 21Pedro LimaM
Form going into Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Famalicao
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
Sporting CP
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Sporting CP
- 13 September 2026Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2026Sporting CP 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2025Famalicao 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 15 March 2025Sporting CP 3–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Famalicao 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 16 April 2024Famalicao 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Sporting CP
Famalicao
- G. Koutsias3 goals
Sporting CP
- L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
- Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
- F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.17 goals for Famalicao and 1.26 for Sporting CP; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luis Suárez 81' (Sporting CP), Gonçalo Inácio 90' (Famalicao).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Famalicao against 1.26 for Sporting CP. Famalicao's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.82 for Sporting CP.