Famalicao vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Famalicao, 31% draw, 36% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 33P. SalasF
- 3L. RealpeD
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 5L. MeyerD
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 18R. BeneyF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesM
- 31Luis GuilhermeM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 28J. DerryF
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 30KaiqueG
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 21Pedro LimaM
Form going into Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Famalicao
Primeira Liga
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Sporting CP
- 15 February 2026Sporting CP 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2025Famalicao 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 15 March 2025Sporting CP 3–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Famalicao 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 16 April 2024Famalicao 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Sporting CP
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez81
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Famalicao and Sporting CP drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Suárez (penalty) 81' for Sporting CP, Gonçalo Inácio (own goal) 90+1' for Famalicao. Sent off: Roméo Beney (Famalicao) 87'.
How the call on Famalicao v Sporting CP has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 32% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Famalicao win33%▼ −2
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Sporting CP win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.