SC Braga vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: SC Braga 1-0 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% SC Braga, 28% draw, 26% Estoril — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Braga vs Estoril
Line-ups
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 37A. BarišićD
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 77Gabri MartínezM
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 10Pau VictorF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 6Vitor CarvalhoM
- 44A. BajramiD
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 21Ricardo HortaF
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 19J. WindF
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 44M. RobinM
- 98Fabrício GarciaM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 11N. OmerovićM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 16M. TurkG
- 5A. TsounguiD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 17PeixinhoF
- 7André LacximicantF
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 9A. CamblanM
- 35S. AmissahD
Form going into SC Braga vs Estoril
SC Braga
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Austria Vienna27 August 2026
- W2-0Austria Vienna20 August 2026
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Estoril
- 3 May 2026SC Braga 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 19 December 2025Estoril 1–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2025Estoril 0–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 6 December 2024SC Braga 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 13 April 2024Estoril 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Estoril
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor41
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Braga beat Estoril 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for SC Braga at 46%. The goal: Jonas Wind 83' for SC Braga. Sent off: Francisco Reis Ferreira (Estoril) 63'.
How the call on SC Braga v Estoril has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is SC Braga's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- SC Braga win46%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Estoril win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often SC Braga's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Estoril's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.