SC Braga
vs
Estoril
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: SC Braga 1-0 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% SC Braga, 29% draw, 21% Estoril — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.62, Estoril 0.70.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: SC Braga vs Estoril
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Braga vs Estoril
Line-ups
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 37A. BarišićD
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 34E. TıknazM
- 77Gabri MartínezM
- 11Gabriel SilvaF
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 10Pau VictorF
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 6Vitor CarvalhoM
- 44A. BajramiD
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 21Ricardo HortaF
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 19J. WindF
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 44M. RobinM
- 98Fabrício GarciaM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 11N. OmerovićM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 16M. TurkG
- 5A. TsounguiD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 17PeixinhoF
- 7André LacximicantF
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 9A. CamblanM
- 35S. AmissahD
Form going into SC Braga vs Estoril
SC Braga
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
- W1-0Vitória SC31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Estoril
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SC Braga | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Estoril
- 3 May 2026SC Braga 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 19 December 2025Estoril 1–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2025Estoril 0–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 6 December 2024SC Braga 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 13 April 2024Estoril 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 27 January 2024SC Braga 1–1 EstorilTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Estoril
SC Braga
- Pau Victor3 goals1 assists
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.62 goals for SC Braga and 0.70 for Estoril; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jonas Wind 83' (SC Braga).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.7 for Estoril. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.05 for Estoril.