Reims
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Reims 2–1 Saint Etienne
The model makes it 38% Reims, 27% draw, 35% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Reims 1.51, Saint Etienne 1.43.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Reims and Saint Etienne are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Reims's rating is built from 46 Ligue 2 matches and Saint Etienne's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Reims are 4th on 21 points from 12 games; Saint Etienne are top on 28 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Reims have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Grenoble.
- Saint Etienne have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Laval.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Reims 1–0 Saint Etienne.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Reims vs Saint Etienne
Has the model earned this number?
Reims at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Reims vs Saint Etienne
Reims
Ligue 2
- L2-3away to Grenoble6 November 2026
- W2-0Sochaux2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne26 October 2026
- W4-2Dijon16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2
- W2-0Laval7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Guingamp31 October 2026
- W1-0Nantes24 October 2026
- W1-0away to RED Star FC 9317 October 2026
- W2-0Rodez10 October 2026
What these results say
- Reims scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Saint Etienne won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Saint Etienne scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Saint Etienne kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 21 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Reims
Chance to finish in the top two · 28% today
Saint Etienne
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 52% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Reims vs Saint Etienne
- 24 January 2026Reims 1–0 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 20 September 2025Saint Etienne 3–2 ReimsLigue 2
- 10 May 2025Reims 0–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 4 January 2025Saint Etienne 3–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 14 May 2022Saint Etienne 1–2 ReimsLigue 1
- 11 December 2021Reims 2–0 Saint EtienneLigue 1
Leading scorers: Reims and Saint Etienne
Reims
GoalsAssists
- Y. Fofana112
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- I. Cardona65
- A. Boakye63
- T. Ballo52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Saint Etienne (first, with Reims fourth), while our numbers lean to Reims. Reims rate 0.86 in attack and 1.42 in defence, Saint Etienne 0.82 and 1.19 (lower is better in defence), so Reims have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Reims a 11.7% chance of the title and Saint Etienne 51.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Reims v Saint Etienne has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Reims's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Reims win38%▼ −3
- Draw27%=
- Saint Etienne win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reims the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Reims against 1.43 for Saint Etienne. Reims's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.19 for Saint Etienne.
How the model reaches 38% for Reims to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Reims to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Reims's ratings take away 1 point and Saint Etienne's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Reims's ratings40%−1
- Saint Etienne's ratings38%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Reims at home · Saint Etienne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ReimsSaint Etienne
Reims are 4th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Saint Etienne are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 1st). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Reims 12, Saint Etienne 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Reims
- at Rodez4 Dec · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Metz11 Dec · Ligue 2win 42%
- vs Laval2 Jan · Ligue 2win 61%
- at PAU15 Jan · Ligue 2win 43%
- vs RED Star FC 9322 Jan · Ligue 2win 53%
Saint Etienne
- vs Nancy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 49%
- at PAU11 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
- at Annecy2 Jan · Ligue 2win 45%
- vs Boulogne15 Jan · Ligue 2win 50%
- at Clermont Foot22 Jan · Ligue 2win 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.