Regular Season - 13 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Nancy vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction

Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy

Our model says: Nancy 2–1 Dijon

The model makes it 43% Nancy, 26% draw, 31% Dijon — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Nancy 1.71, Dijon 1.35.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 6 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Nancy's rating is built from 46 Ligue 2 matches and Dijon's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.

Key facts

Nancy are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games; Dijon are 6th on 18 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
Nancy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sochaux.
Dijon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to RED Star FC 93.
Last 6 meetings: Nancy 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Nancy 2–2 Dijon.

More Ligue 2 predictions

All Ligue 2 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nancy vs Dijon

61%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nancy win Draw Dijon win

1–111%
2–19%
1–07%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
0–16%

Scores read Nancy first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nancy at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nancy vs Dijon

Nancy

Ligue 2

W1-0Sochaux6 November 2026
W4-1away to RED Star FC 932 November 2026
W1-0Laval23 October 2026
W2-1away to Annecy16 October 2026
W1-0Guingamp9 October 2026

Dijon

Ligue 2

W1-0RED Star FC 936 November 2026
W3-1away to Grenoble30 October 2026
L1-2Rodez24 October 2026
L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
W4-2Metz12 October 2026

What these results say

Nancy won every one of these 5 matches.
Nancy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Dijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Dijon had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	17	9	+8	25
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	21	19	+2	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Nancy

Chance to finish in the top two · 27% today

Win 32%

Draw 24%

Defeat 20%

Dijon

Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today

Win 10%

Draw 6%

Defeat 4%

From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Nancy vs Dijon

1 August 2026Nancy 2–2 DijonFriendlies Clubs
21 February 2025Dijon 0–1 NancyLigue 3
20 September 2024Nancy 0–1 DijonLigue 3
26 February 2024Dijon 3–1 NancyLigue 3
18 September 2023Nancy 3–0 DijonLigue 3
7 May 2022Dijon 2–3 NancyLigue 2

Leading scorers: Nancy and Dijon

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Dijon

GoalsAssists

Júlio Tavares51
Y. Barka40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nancy a 9.6% chance of the title and Dijon 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Nancy v Dijon has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 45% / 25% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Nancy's chance of winning, down 2 points.

Nancy win43%▼ −2
Draw26%▲ +1
Dijon win31%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nancy Dijon

0.68 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82

1.34 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.7

1.71 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nancy the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Nancy against 1.35 for Dijon. Nancy's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.7 for Dijon.

Nancy carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.5 for Dijon. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Nancy to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nancy to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Nancy's ratings change nothing and Dijon's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage41%+5
Both sides at this match's level42%+1
Nancy's ratings42%±0
Dijon's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

NancyModelDijon

Over 1.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

59%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

37%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

NancyDijon

12Matches12

8W 1D 3LRecord5W 3D 4L

17 1.4 per gameGoals scored21 1.8 per game

9 0.8 per gameGoals conceded19 1.6 per game

6 of 12Clean sheets1 of 12

3 of 12Failed to score1 of 12

2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1

20 1.7 per gameYellow cards15 1.3 per game

3Red cards0

4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-1-3-2 10×

Nancy at home · Dijon away

6Played6

4W 0D 2LRecord2W 3D 1L

6–3Goals for – against10–9

4 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

NancyDijon

Nancy are 2nd after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 15th so far); Dijon are 6th after 12 (between 3rd and 17th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 2 matches this season: Nancy 12, Dijon 12.

Nancy scored 212454

Dijon conceded 135135

Nancy score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Dijon have let in 3 there.

Dijon scored 243236

Nancy conceded 031211

Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Nancy have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Nancy

at Saint Etienne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 24%
vs Clermont Foot11 Dec · Ligue 2win 47%
at Metz2 Jan · Ligue 2win 36%
vs Grenoble15 Jan · Ligue 2win 51%
at Guingamp22 Jan · Ligue 2win 37%

Dijon

vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 53%
at Guingamp11 Dec · Ligue 2win 38%
vs Nantes2 Jan · Ligue 2win 49%
vs Dunkerque15 Jan · Ligue 2win 45%
at Metz22 Jan · Ligue 2win 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.