Nantes
vs
Grenoble
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nantes 1–0 Grenoble
The model makes it 44% Nantes, 28% draw, 28% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nantes 1.50, Grenoble 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Nantes's rating is built from 12 Ligue 2 matches and Grenoble's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Nantes are 14th on 12 points from 12 games; Grenoble are 17th on 11 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Nantes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to PAU.
- Grenoble have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Reims.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 March 2011, ended Grenoble 2–0 Nantes.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nantes vs Grenoble
Has the model earned this number?
Nantes at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nantes vs Grenoble
Nantes
Ligue 2
- W2-0away to PAU7 November 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Saint Etienne24 October 2026
- L2-3Dunkerque17 October 2026
- D0-0Reims10 October 2026
Grenoble
Ligue 2
- W3-2Reims6 November 2026
- L1-3Dijon30 October 2026
- L1-2away to PAU23 October 2026
- L0-2Boulogne16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026
What these results say
- Nantes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nantes had two goals or fewer.
- Grenoble conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Grenoble failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nantes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Grenoble
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Grenoble
- 4 March 2011Grenoble 2–0 NantesLigue 2
- 24 September 2010Nantes 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2
How the call on Nantes v Grenoble has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Nantes's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Nantes win44%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Grenoble win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Nantes against 1.09 for Grenoble. Nantes's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.66 for Grenoble.
How the model reaches 44% for Nantes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nantes to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Nantes's ratings add 2 points and Grenoble's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Nantes's ratings42%+2
- Grenoble's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nantes at home · Grenoble away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NantesGrenoble
Nantes are 14th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 13th and 18th so far); Grenoble are 17th after 12 (between 9th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Nantes 12, Grenoble 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nantes
- at Montpellier4 Dec · Ligue 2win 19%
- vs Annecy11 Dec · Ligue 2win 39%
- at Dijon2 Jan · Ligue 2win 26%
- vs Metz15 Jan · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Dunkerque22 Jan · Ligue 2win 28%
Grenoble
- vs Guingamp4 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
- at RED Star FC 9311 Dec · Ligue 2win 27%
- vs Sochaux2 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
- at Nancy15 Jan · Ligue 2win 22%
- vs Montpellier22 Jan · Ligue 2win 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.