RED Star FC 93
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: RED Star FC 93 2–1 PAU
The model makes it 42% RED Star FC 93, 27% draw, 31% PAU — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: RED Star FC 93 1.63, PAU 1.33.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. RED Star FC 93's rating is built from 46 Ligue 2 matches and PAU's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- RED Star FC 93 are 8th on 17 points from 12 games; PAU are 5th on 20 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- RED Star FC 93 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Dijon.
- PAU have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nantes.
- Last 6 meetings: PAU 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended RED Star FC 93 0–3 PAU.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU
Has the model earned this number?
RED Star FC 93 at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs PAU
RED Star FC 93
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Dijon6 November 2026
- L1-4Nancy2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Montpellier26 October 2026
- L0-1Saint Etienne17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Clermont Foot10 October 2026
PAU
Ligue 2
- L0-2Nantes7 November 2026
- W3-1away to Metz30 October 2026
- W2-1Grenoble23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Guingamp16 October 2026
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
What these results say
- RED Star FC 93 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAU won 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | RED Star FC 93 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
RED Star FC 93
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
PAU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU
- 6 February 2026RED Star FC 93 0–3 PAULigue 2
- 12 September 2025PAU 0–3 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 17 January 2025RED Star FC 93 1–3 PAULigue 2
- 22 November 2024PAU 4–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 7 February 2020RED Star FC 93 1–2 PAULigue 3
- 30 August 2019PAU 3–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 3
Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and PAU
RED Star FC 93
GoalsAssists
- D. Durand50
- J. Ikanga A Ngele42
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PAU (fifth, with RED Star FC 93 eighth), while our numbers lean to RED Star FC 93. RED Star FC 93 rate 0.66 in attack and 1.59 in defence, PAU 0.68 and 1.67 (lower is better in defence), so RED Star FC 93 have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives RED Star FC 93 a 0.3% chance of the title and PAU 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on RED Star FC 93 v PAU has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- RED Star FC 93 win42%▲ +1
- Draw27%▲ +1
- PAU win31%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RED Star FC 93 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 against 1.33 for PAU. RED Star FC 93's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.67 for PAU.
How the model reaches 42% for RED Star FC 93 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for RED Star FC 93 to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, RED Star FC 93's ratings add 1 point and PAU's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- RED Star FC 93's ratings42%+1
- PAU's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
RED Star FC 93 at home · PAU away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
RED Star FC 93PAU
RED Star FC 93 are 8th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 8th so far); PAU are 5th after 12 (between 3rd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: RED Star FC 93 12, PAU 12.
PAU score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); RED Star FC 93 have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
RED Star FC 93
- at Dunkerque4 Dec · Ligue 2win 29%
- vs Grenoble11 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
- at Rodez2 Jan · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Annecy15 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
- at Reims22 Jan · Ligue 2win 23%
PAU
- at Boulogne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs Saint Etienne11 Dec · Ligue 2win 28%
- at Clermont Foot2 Jan · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs Reims15 Jan · Ligue 2win 31%
- at Laval22 Jan · Ligue 2win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.