Sochaux
vs
Dunkerque
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Sochaux 0–1 Dunkerque
The model makes it 30% Sochaux, 30% draw, 40% Dunkerque — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sochaux 1.03, Dunkerque 1.29.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Dunkerque: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sochaux's rating is built from 12 Ligue 2 matches and Dunkerque's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 727 matches.
Key facts
- Sochaux are 16th on 11 points from 12 games; Dunkerque are 10th on 15 points from 12 games — Ligue 2.
- Sochaux have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nancy.
- Dunkerque have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Guingamp.
- Last 4 meetings: Sochaux 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 January 2022, ended Dunkerque 0–0 Sochaux.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sochaux vs Dunkerque
Has the model earned this number?
Dunkerque at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sochaux vs Dunkerque
Sochaux
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Nancy6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Reims2 November 2026
- L1-3Annecy23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Metz17 October 2026
- D1-1Boulogne9 October 2026
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- W3-0Guingamp6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Rodez30 October 2026
- D1-1Metz23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
What these results say
- Sochaux did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sochaux
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
Dunkerque
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sochaux vs Dunkerque
- 22 January 2022Dunkerque 0–0 SochauxLigue 2
- 14 August 2021Sochaux 1–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 1 May 2021Dunkerque 1–0 SochauxLigue 2
- 5 January 2021Sochaux 1–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
Leading scorers: Sochaux and Dunkerque
Sochaux
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sochaux a 0% chance of the title and Dunkerque 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Sochaux v Dunkerque has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Sochaux's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Sochaux win30%▼ −3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Dunkerque win40%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sochaux against 1.29 for Dunkerque. Sochaux's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.55 for Dunkerque.
How the model reaches 40% for Dunkerque to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunkerque to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Sochaux's ratings add 3 points and Dunkerque's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Sochaux's ratings34%+3
- Dunkerque's ratings40%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sochaux at home · Dunkerque away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SochauxDunkerque
Sochaux are 16th after 12 Ligue 2 matches (between 6th and 18th so far); Dunkerque are 10th after 12 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Sochaux 12, Dunkerque 12.
Sochaux score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Dunkerque have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sochaux
- at Dijon4 Dec · Ligue 2win 21%
- vs Montpellier11 Dec · Ligue 2win 21%
- at Grenoble2 Jan · Ligue 2win 28%
- vs Rodez15 Jan · Ligue 2win 32%
- at Boulogne22 Jan · Ligue 2win 23%
Dunkerque
- vs RED Star FC 934 Dec · Ligue 2win 44%
- at Laval11 Dec · Ligue 2win 41%
- vs Boulogne2 Jan · Ligue 2win 41%
- at Dijon15 Jan · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs Nantes22 Jan · Ligue 2win 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.